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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.